Update to this blog post. My Mum’s care home has decided to go into ‘lock down’. I am glad I have done my research because I know they are doing the right thing and I absolutely back them up 100%.
My heart is breaking.
Yesterday I hoped that the government would announce stringent measures to curtail the spread of coronavirus . I had my doubts due to my own experiences and others’. Apparently that was the containment phase.
The tone of the press conference was very adult and sombre and I found that reassuring. I was also pleased that they have changed advice so that people with mild symptoms should now self isolate. However, that advice should surely have come sooner and the measures they are going to take are extremely limited. They are banning school trips and recommend elderly not to go on cruises. This, they say is the ‘delay’ phase.
According to the WHO“Covid-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.” We can see this translated into graphs where the unhindered contagion rate of this novel coronavirus is extremely rapid and often exponential.
In order to delay the numbers catching it, you have to create inflection in that exponential growth. The evidence from countries already dealing with it is that social distancing measures affect the growth in this way, slowing down the contagion rate. (See the graph in this article) The lesson from those afflicted countries tell us to intervene with social distancing (and other) measures sooner rather than later and every day counts. In the briefing they gave weak measures compared to other countries and said they think it is better to do social distancing at a later stage.
They mentioned flattening the curvein the briefing yesterday in order to not overwhelm health services. However, this means we have to slow contagion rates. The limited methods they are going to use do not correlate with this aim. I felt confused.
In a sleepless night tweet, I wrote “I think I might be at the Shock Doctrine stage where you start feeling child like. I did find the conference reassuring to some extent. ….Then I compared to known data and strategies that have worked + compared to Macron’s speech. They aren’t doing what’s needed are they.”
This chart summarises the interventions by various countries: